I want to share my thoughts on the US economy and the US stock market:
The financial media thrives on drama, and right now, the focus is on market choppiness and uncertainty surrounding tariffs.
But as investors, we need to separate short-term noise from long-term opportunity.
On our recent investment call, we highlighted several key data points:
• Investor Sentiment is Extremely Bearish – The AAII investor survey has reached a bearishness level seen only six times since 1987. Historically, extreme fear often precedes strong market recoveries.
• Investors’ Actions Tell a Different Story – While the Put/Call ratio has moved slightly higher, it hasn’t hit levels that typically indicate a market bottom. Ideally, we’d see stronger confirmation of an oversold condition.
• Policy-Driven Volatility – Market sentiment is currently being swayed by conversations around tariffs and policy shifts. However, just as quickly as these narratives have turned negative, they can reverse.The chart below (originally shared several weeks ago) shows the typical market pattern post-election. While history doesn’t repeat exactly, the current market action aligns with the latter part of a consolidation phase before a potential uptrend.
The bottom line? Choppiness is normal, and staying invested through volatility is how long-term gains are made. Now is the time to stay patient and look for opportunities rather than get caught up in the daily headlines.
